The Melbourne Cup has been raced annually since way back in 1861 when its inaugural running was won by Archer. During more than 150 years of Cup history, all sorts of interesting statistics and trivia have been compiled from all the race winners.
While these stats and facts are not necessarily sure-fire ways to pick a future race winner, they do make for some interesting reading, and you could certainly use a few of them to produce a formula to try and predict the next big winner of the coveted Melbourne Cup.
Pick Your Favourite Jockey Colours
Each jockey in the great race will wear slightly different colours to everyone else to make them more distinguishable. If you want to increase your chances of backing a winner, then choose a horse ridden by a jockey wearing blue – either navy blue or royal blue – as these 2 shades of blue have won the race a total of 18 times. You could also opt for black, as that colour has seen 17 race victories over the years.
Take Into Account the Age of the Racehorse
If you take a look at the stats of racehorse age as compared to winners of the Melbourne Cup, you’ll discover that any 3-year-olds are seriously a bad bet. No 3-year-old racehorse has won for 78 years. That’s a very long drought. Horses that are 4 or 5 years old statistically have the greatest chance of victory. A grand total of 92 winners of the great race have been 4 and 5-year old racehorses. In comparison, only 12 horses aged over 7 have ever won the race.
The Handicap Weight Can Make All the Difference
If you’re hoping to correctly pick the winner of Melbourne Cup 2019, then make sure to check the handicap weight of each horse in the race, as historically it can have a huge bearing on the result.
All horses in the race are assigned a minimum weight by the handicapper. This weight includes the weight of the jockey, the saddle, and any additional ballast to bring the total up to the determined handicap weight allotted to a particular horse.
Recent history shows that horses with a total handicap weight of either 53kg or 54kg stand the best chance of storming home first past the post. If a horse is lumbered with 57kg or more in handicap weight, rarely will they come out a winner.
Can a Certain Barrier Produce a Winner?
While it’s not exactly a scientific way to choose your winning ride on Melbourne Cup day, barrier draws for the great race have produced some interesting figures over the years.
Did you know that out of 24 barriers, only barrier number 18 has ever failed to produce a winner?
Now, this could be viewed from two different perspectives. Firstly, you might decide that it’s a total waste of time choosing a horse starting in barrier 18. On the other hand, with so many races run, isn’t it high time barrier 18 did produce a winner? It’s got to be majorly overdue.
On the flip-side, barrier number 5 has produced the most Melbourne Cup winners, with a total of 8 victories.
Be Sexist and Back a Stallion
The very reason you want to place your wager down on a stallion is because stallions have won almost half of all the Melbourne Cup races ever run. They have it all over mares, fillies, geldings and colts.
In fact, stallions have won 70 Cup races to date, nearly as much as all the other categories combined.
Admittedly more stallions tend to feature in the great race over the years, but the numbers don’t lie. Your best bet is backing a stallion.
Don’t Choose a Horse That’s Not a Proven Stayer
There has been many a fancied horse to take the Cup crown over the years, but come race day, they end up being a big disappointment. Often this is due to the fact that the horse has never seriously competed – and won – longer distance races.
The Melbourne Cup is 3200 metres long. Usually, only true stayers will have the greatest chance at victory.